UK risks missing 2050 climate targets without urgent action

15 July 2025

The UK is on course to miss its legally binding 2050 climate targets unless the deployment of clean energy accelerates significantly, according to a new report from the National Energy System Operator (Neso).

In its latest long-term forecast, Neso warns that the country’s current trajectory will fall short of the renewable energy capacity needed to reach net zero. The report estimates that existing policies and planned projects will deliver 148 gigawatts (GW) of renewable generation by 2035, well below the 170 to 190GW required.

Carbon emissions are also projected to overshoot net zero benchmarks. The UK is forecast to emit 274 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2035, which is approximately a third higher than the 185 to 204 million tonnes needed to stay on track.

This marks the second major warning this month on the UK’s climate progress, following a similarly stark assessment from the Committee on Climate Change. Both bodies highlight a widening gap between climate ambitions and real-world delivery.

Fintan Slye, chief executive of Neso, says that while the UK’s climate goals are ambitious, implementation is falling short. 

“Over the past year, we have run the electricity system at 95% zero-carbon for the first time and phased out coal entirely from our energy system. But this isn’t enough. We need to go further and faster, accelerating the roll-out of clean energy technologies is imperative to help deliver a clean and affordable energy system in the long-term.

“The choices made today will shape the success of each wave of Britain’s transition. That means speeding up the adoption of energy efficiency measures, empowering households and businesses to make informed choices on things like demand flexibility, purchasing an electric car and switching to low-carbon heating.”

Energy efficiency is identified as a key immediate opportunity, offering both emissions reductions and cost savings. However, uptake of measures like demand-side flexibility and low-carbon heating remains slow, despite their importance in creating a stable and affordable energy system.

The report also highlights political uncertainty. While Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has criticised those opposing net zero policies as “betraying future generations”, the government points to signs of progress, including rising private investment, new project approvals, and the creation of Great British Energy.

Despite these developments, Neso concludes that the current pace of change is inadequate. Without urgent and coordinated action from industry, policymakers, and investors, the UK’s climate goals risk slipping out of reach.