UK gas imports could rise without heat pump policy

The UK may need to import around 20% more gas if the government fails to implement the Clean Heat Market Mechanism and Future Homes Standard, according to new analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU).

The report states that these policies could displace approximately 300TWh of gas by 2035, equivalent to heating 26 million homes for a year or the gas contained in around 340 LNG tankers. Even if the UK fully utilises new and future North Sea gas reserves, imports will still rise unless gas boiler reliance is reduced.

The Clean Heat Market Mechanism, set for implementation on 1st April, requires fossil fuel boiler manufacturers to sell an increasing proportion of heat pumps. However, the Government recently reduced fines for non-compliance from £3,000 to £500, raising concerns that the measure may no longer be effective in curbing gas demand.

Jess Ralston, an energy analyst at the ECIU, stated that UK gas output has been in decline and will continue to fall, while electricity generation from offshore wind is increasing. She highlighted that reducing gas boiler dependence is essential for energy security and stable consumer bills.

In 2024, heat pump sales in the UK rose by 63% to nearly 100,000. January 2025 saw a record 5,000 heat pumps installed, with one in five new homes fitted with the technology, up from one in ten the previous year. The Government’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which offers £7,500 grants for replacing gas boilers, also saw an 80% increase in applications compared to the year before.

The Future Homes Standard, which aims to mandate heat pump installation in new homes, has faced delays. If it is not implemented, gas demand could be 20TWh higher by 2035, adding 5% to required imports. The standard is expected in 2025, but specific technical requirements and timelines remain unconfirmed.

Concerns have been raised over industry lobbying efforts against heat pump adoption. Reports indicate that some gas boiler manufacturers introduced a so-called “boiler tax” to cover compliance costs. Trade bodies and housebuilders have also been accused of opposing higher build standards, potentially increasing future gas reliance.

Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU:

“There’s no two ways about it, we need to move away from gas boilers if we want to stop the rollercoaster of bill increases that are a result of our reliance on volatile gas prices and to avoid becoming ever more dependent on gas imports. North Sea gas output has been declining for years and that is only going to continue whereas electricity from offshore wind that can power heat pumps is growing.

 “Even if we max out the North Sea, our gas imports will rise unless we reduce our dependence on gas boilers because the UK’s own gas reserves are running out. Parts of the housebuilding industry have lobbied against better build standards that would have saved new homeowners hundreds of pounds on their energy bills over the past few years and left the UK more dependent on foreign gas. It is a matter of national security.”