New model forecasts slower-than-needed growth in wind and solar power

14 April 2026

Onshore wind and solar power are projected to supply nearly half of global electricity by 2050, according to a new study that suggests current growth trends may not be sufficient to meet the most ambitious climate targets.

Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden have developed a computational model using artificial intelligence to improve how renewable energy expansion is forecast. The model analyses historical growth patterns across more than 200 countries and simulates 13,000 possible future scenarios to estimate the most likely outcomes.

The study finds that onshore wind could generate around 26% of global electricity by mid-century, while solar power may contribute about 21%. These projections are broadly consistent with efforts to limit global warming to 2°C, but fall short of what is required to meet the 1.5°C goal.

Jessica Jewell, professor at Chalmers University of Technology, says:

“Existing models are very good at identifying what needs to happen to reach climate targets, but they can’t tell us which developments are most likely. That’s the gap we wanted to fill.”

The researchers identified a recurring pattern in renewable energy growth, characterised by steady expansion interrupted by sudden increases often driven by policy changes. Avi Jakhmola, a PhD student and the study’s lead author, adds:

“Most models assume a smooth S-shaped growth curve, but that’s not how it actually looks in the real world. Growth often comes in bursts, and if you ignore that, you can misjudge how fast technologies will expand.”

To test the model’s reliability, the team applied it to historical data from 2015 and found it accurately predicted subsequent developments. Jakhmola said this approach, described as a “computational time machine”, provides confidence in its future projections.

The findings also assess the global pledge made at COP28 to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. The study suggests this target lies near the upper end of possible outcomes and would require unusually rapid growth across all countries. 

The research indicates that meeting the 1.5°C target remains achievable if rapid expansion begins immediately, but delays could make the required acceleration significantly more difficult.

The team says the model could be adapted to forecast other low-carbon technologies, with the aim of providing policymakers with more realistic expectations of future energy transitions.

The paper ‘Probabilistic projections of global wind and solar power growth based on historical national experience‘,  has been published in Nature Energy. The researchers have also made an online visualisation tool of the results, available at the Energy Technology and Policy website. The authors are Avi Jakhmola,  Jessica Jewell, Vadim Vinichenko and Aleh Cherp. The researchers are active at Chalmers University of Technology and Lund University in Sweden, University of Bergen in Norway, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Central European University in Austria.