IMechE report: Efficiency needed to stop supply gap widening
The study, from the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE), also argues that the listing of 20 nuclear plants for decommissioning in 2005 has contributed to the supply gap, while also stating that the increased use of interconnectors importing power from Europe and Scandinavia is likely to lead to higher electricity costs and less energy security.
Plans to “plug the gap” with Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plants, which use gas and steam powered turbines in unison, are unrealistic, according to the report, which claims that the UK would need to build about 30 new CCGT plants in less than 10 years. The IMechE argues that the country has “neither the resources nor enough people with the right skills to build this many power stations in time,” adding that the UK has only built four CCGTs in the last 10 years.
The paper, ‘Engineering the UK Electricity Gap’, calls on the UK National Infrastructure Commission to increase efficiency within both the industrial and public sectors by “assessing the necessary incentives,” while also emphasising the need for more investment in renewables, energy storage and combined heat and power research.
Dr Jenifer Baxter, Head of Energy and Environment at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, and Lead Author of the report, believes the UK is facing an electricity supply crisis.
“As the UK population rises and with the greater use of electricity use in transport and heating it looks almost certain that electricity demand is going to rise,” she said.
“Currently there are insufficient incentives for companies to invest in any sort of electricity infrastructure or innovation and worryingly even the Government’s own energy calculator does not allow for the scenarios that new energy policy points towards. Under current policy, it is almost impossible for UK electricity demand to be met by 2025.
“We need to ensure we have the right skills and knowledge in place to enable new electricity infrastructure to be built. The UK National Infrastructure Commission must also take urgent action to prioritise greater energy efficiency by industry and clarify financial incentives for research and development of renewables, energy storage and combined heat and power.”
Lawrence Slade, chief executive of Energy UK, stresses that while significant investment in thermal plants is needed to avoid a capacity gap in coming years, the value that renewables are already adding to the energy mix and will continue to add in the future should not be overlooked.
“In other words, we need a policy framework that looks at the whole system, encourages innovation across different technologies, not focusing on single streams, and supports harnessing multiple technologies to deliver an affordable low carbon electricity supply.”
The report’s findings have been questioned by a number of industry experts and bodies, including Simon Evans, policy editor for climate and energy specialist Carbon Brief, who claims the IMechE analysis is “simplistic” and its conclusions are “disputed.”
“The study’s starting point is the UK’s planned coal phaseout by 2025. It also assumes that all of the UK’s nuclear power stations could close by 2025, despite the expectation that life extensions will keep them running longer,” he said.
“Rather than engaging in detailed energy and economic modelling of the likely consequences of these developments, the IMechE report relies on data from a single day last December.”
