Proven sources ‘key to energy future’

Renewable power, green hydrogen and modern bioenergy, proven technologies for a net-zero energy system that already exist, will dominate the world of energy in the future, finds World Energy Transitions Outlook by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

IRENA’s Outlook proposes energy transition solutions for the narrow pathway available to contain the rise of temperature to 1.5°C and halt irreversible global warming. 90 per cent of all decarbonisation solutions in 2050 will involve renewable energy through direct supply of low-cost power, efficiency, renewable-powered electrification in end-use as well as green hydrogen. Carbon capture and removal technologies in combination with bioenergy will deliver the ‘last mile’ CO₂reductions towards a net-zero energy system.

Francesco La Camera (pictured), director general of IRENA said: “The window of opportunity to achieve the 1.5^oC Paris Agreement goal is closing fast. The recent trends show that the gap between where we are and where we should be is not decreasing but widening. We are heading in the wrong direction.

“While the pathway is daunting, several favourable elements can make it achievable,”La Cameraadded. “Major economies accounting for over half of global CO₂ emissions are turning carbon neutral. Global capital is moving too. We see financial markets and investors shifting capital into sustainable assets. Covid-19 has highlighted the cost of tying economies to fossil fuels and confirmed the resilience of renewable energy. As governments pump huge sums in bailouts and recovery, investment must support energy transition. It is time to act and countries can lead the way with policies for a climate-safe, prosperous and just energy system fit for the 21st century.”

IRENA’s “1.5°C pathway” sees a trebling of global power dominated by renewables in 2050. It also sees a decline in fossil fuel use by more than 75 per cent over the same time, with oil and coal consumption shrinking fastest. Natural gas should peak around 2025, becoming the largest remaining fossil fuel by 2050.

In addition, IRENA sees electricity becoming the main energy carrier in 2050 with renewable power capacity expanding more than ten-fold over the same period. Transport will see the highest growth of electrification with a 30-fold increase. Almost 70 per cent of carbon emission reductions in transport will come from direct and indirect electrification.

Green hydrogen will emerge as one of the major demand for electricity, representing 30 per cent of total consumption in 2050. Bioenergy combined with carbon removal technologies (BECCS) will increasingly be important for industry to bring “negative emissions” in face of a limited carbon budget for 1.5°C.