EU will add over 43m heat pumps by 2030, but it still falls short

European countries have the potential to add approximately 43.2 million heating and hot water pumps in the next eight years, but this falls short of the 60 million additional heat pumps needed by 2030 to meet the EU’s decarbonisation targets.

Analysis by the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA) projects that the total heat pump stock will reach close to 60 million units in Europe by 2030, taking into account both new installations and replacements of older units. These heat pumps will provide renewable heating to about half of Europe’s buildings, indicating a substantial contribution to decarbonisation efforts.

Despite the positive projections, the estimated addition of heat pumps still falls short of the 60 million additional units required between 2023 and 2030, as cited by REPowerEU. The EHPA points to a number of barriers in the sector, particularly the unbalanced playing field that heavily favours fossil fuels in terms of subsidies and taxation, hindering the adoption of clean heating solutions.

Thomas Nowak, secretary-general at EHPA, emphasises the need for a more ambitious framework that prioritises affordability. He said: “Heat pump rollout is happening, but to decarbonise heating and cooling governments need to create a more ambitious framework that makes clean heating most affordable for all. Distorted pricing that favours gas over electricity should be corrected to encourage more end users to switch to clean solutions and reward them with lower heating bills. The electricity price should be no more than double the price of gas.”

By 2030 the European leader will be France with over 8 million additional heating and hot-water heat pumps installed, followed by Germany and Italy. Apart from Poland, the main expected growth is in western Europe.