Cooling to account for 13% of global electricity demand by 2035
5 November 2026
Electricity used for cooling will make up 13% of global demand by 2035, producing 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, according to analysis by DNV. That is roughly equivalent to Japan’s entire annual CO2 emissions today.
The 13% share is double the demand from either electric vehicle charging or AI data centres.
Global cooling demand currently stands at 2,800 terawatt hours and is forecast to rise by 80% by 2040, compared with 55% growth over the past 15 years. Rising incomes and expanding commercial and residential floor space are contributing, as is a warming climate.
Growth is expected to be uneven. In North America, where air conditioning is already widespread, cooling demand is projected to rise by just over 5% in the next 15 years, with data centres accounting for much of the increase. It is forecast to triple in the Indian subcontinent and quadruple in South East Asia.
The timing of demand is also a concern. According to DNV, cooling use can surge across millions of buildings at once during extreme heat, when power systems are under the greatest strain.
The findings come from DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, a forecast to 2060. It projects that emissions from electricity used for space cooling will fall by around 40% from 2022 levels by mid-century.
That compares with the Global Cooling Pledge, launched at the COP28 climate summit in 2023, which calls for cooling-related emissions to fall by at least 68% from 2022 levels by 2050. DNV notes the pledge uses a broader measure that includes hydrofluorocarbons, the refrigerant gases used in air conditioning, so the two figures are not directly comparable.
The pledge also seeks to raise the average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030, from a 2022 installed baseline. DNV’s analysis found rising incomes to be the strongest driver of cooling demand between 2025 and 2040, with improvements in equipment and controls offsetting only a small part of that growth.
DNV’s analysis cautions: “An efficiency ambition is not an efficiency outcome.”
The Third Annual Cooling Ministerial takes place on 16 November.
