Slow heat pump roll out led to higher gas use last year

If the UK had deployed heat pumps at the same rate as some other European countries, its consumption of gas would have been significantly lower, new analysis suggests.

Research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that if the UK had already installed the same amount of heat pumps per 100,000 people as Estonia, its domestic gas use would be 34 per cent lower than in 2021, and gas imports in 2021 could have been cut by a fifth (19 per cent).

Heat pumps have already replaced about 20 per cent of the boilers in Europe, but the war in Ukraine is accelerating this market as consumers look to reduce gas demand.

Estonia sold 1583 heat pumps per 100,000 people in 2021 and Poland sold 259 per 100,000 people, 25x and 4x more than the UK’s 63, respectively.

Total numbers of heat pumps are also a lot higher in most of Europe compared to the UK, which has just 280,000 heat pumps installed. France has 3.1 million installed and Norway has 1.3 million

The ECIU points to innovative business models as part of the reason heat pumps are doing so well in Estonia. There, consumers can rent heat pumps for a decade or more in order to avoid upfront and maintenance costs, a deal accepted by more households than anticipated.

In September and October 2022, the UK’s monthly installations of heat pumps registered by the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) were around 2,500, with the number of installers taking part in the Boiler Upgrade Scheme almost doubling from around 450 to 900 since the launch of the scheme.

Alongside efforts in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the US is also supporting installation of heat pumps, leading to sales growing by 15% and 35% in the US and EU respectively. Global growth in the heat pump market 2021 was the highest on record at 13%.

Jess Ralston, Senior Analyst at ECIU, said: “They’ve been dubbed freedom pumps in the US because they reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas. The IMF has been clear that the UK is Europe’s most gas-addicted country. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme is essentially the UK’s down-payment on energy security. It’s driving down the costs to as little as £2,000 while driving up jobs for installers and manufacturers.”