Winter bills will be 55% higher than pre-crisis, says ECIU

Energy bills under Ofgem’s new price cap are due to rise by 10% to £1,717 for the typical dual fuel bill on 1st October 2024. New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) finds that even with households being estimated to cut their gas and electricity demand in response, by 15% and 10% respectively, bills this winter are still expected to be 55% higher than before the gas crisis.

This means that a typical home at the government’s target Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) band C would pay £900 for gas and electricity over the winter compared to £580 before the crisis.

However, households with poorer energy efficiency, for example those that are not properly insulated, will pay even more. The least efficient homes, rated EPC band F, will pay around £1,290 over the course of the winter, around £440 more than pre-crisis and £385 more than one rated EPC band C.

Even with households cutting energy use this winter, homes in the UK rated EPC band D or worse will collectively pay up to £3.7bn more this winter in gas and electricity bills, compared to if they were all rated EPC C. Of these extra energy costs, £2.4bn would be spent on gas and £1.3bn on electricity.

Jess Ralston, Energy Analyst at the ECIU:

“Millions of households are facing higher bills this winter in cold homes that simply leak heat. Investment in improving energy efficiency through government schemes has dropped over the past decade and fallen even further in the first six months of this year. At a time of energy bill crisis, this makes very little sense.

“Insulating a home brings down its bills once and for all, meaning people won’t simply turn off the heating to get by which jeopardises their health. This is why government plans for minimum standards for privately rented homes are so important given they are the coldest and dampest properties.

“All eyes will be on the Budget to see what investment and plans the government will muster to tackle this and the ongoing energy crisis. Improved efficiency means less gas burnt in boilers and less gas needed from international markets, thereby boosting British energy security.”