UK could cut gas imports by half with increased heat pump installations, says ECIU Analysis

According to new analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), installing heat pumps in the UK at the same rate as Finland, Norway, and France could significantly reduce gas imports, with the installation of as many heat pumps as sold in Finland potentially cutting gas imports by half (49 per cent) by 2032.

The UK sold only 88 heat pumps per 100,000 people in 2022, while Finland and Norway sold 40 and 33 times more, respectively. If the UK installed heat pumps at the same rate as Finland, it could lower its total demand by 32%, says the analysis.

In gas-rich Norway, heat pumps have become the main source of heating, with two-thirds of homes using them. If the UK installed heat pumps at the same rate as Norway by 2032, it could potentially lower total energy demand by around 28 per cent and reduce gas imports by 40 per cent, which is equivalent to 70 per cent of the UK’s domestic gas use.

The trend continues outside of Scandinavia, with almost all European countries outstripping the UK on sales of heat pumps partly in response to energy security concerns and higher bills during the gas crisis and Russian war in Ukraine.

A relative newcomer to the heat pump market, France sold twelve times more heat pumps per 100,000 people than in the UK in 2022, a rise of 30 per cent from the previous year. Installing heat pumps at the same rate as France could see UK imports reduced by a fifth (19 per cent) and energy demand from homes reduced by a third (33 per cent) by 2035.

The Netherlands, a country with similar heating sources to the UK, is transitioning to electric heat pumps despite having natural gas reserves. In 2018, the country introduced a phase-out on gas boilers in new builds, and it plans to extend this ban to all homes by 2026. The transition was aided by financial incentives, such as grants to households, and in 2022, the Netherlands sold seven times more heat pumps per 100,000 people than the UK.

The International Monetary Fund has identified that the UK is the worst hit by the gas crisis in Europe, as homes are not very energy efficient, meaning that its dependency on gas is very high.